Typhoon Doksuri to form as soon as Thursday, impact on Taiwan uncertain

颱風“杜蘇芮”最快週四形成 對台灣影響不明

US ensemble model trends more toward Taiwan than European version


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The weather across Taiwan will be unstable on Tuesday (July 18) due to a low-pressure belt, and a tropical disturbance to the east of the Philippines will become Typhoon Doksuri (杜蘇芮), but its impact on Taiwan is uncertain, according to forecast models from the U.S. and Europe.

Meteorologist Daniel Wu (吳德榮) said in his daily report that the influence of the monsoon gyre, defined by the American Meteorological Society as "a convection of the summer monsoon circulation of the western North Pacific," will lead to higher humidity and a slight drop in temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday (July 19). There is a chance of short-term showers, and there will be heavy rain in the Hengchun Peninsula and eastern Taiwan.

The atmosphere will be unstable, and there will be strong convection in the afternoon. The public is urged to beware of localized "heavy thunderstorms" and accompanying "severe weather."

Wu said that according to the latest models, the monsoon gyre will move westward from Thursday to Sunday (July 20-23), leading to reduced humidity and sunny, hot weather. There is still a chance of localized brief showers in eastern Taiwan and thundershowers in mountainous and plains areas in the afternoons, but the intensity of the convection will weaken and the scope of the thunderstorms will be smaller.

Wu said that according to the European ensemble model, the path of Typhoon Doksuri, the fifth tropical cyclone of 2023, is similar to that of Tropical Storm Talim (泰利). It shows it will advance from the Philippine Sea towards the northwest, but the U.S. ensemble model shows that both the average and the individual paths trend more toward Taiwan.

Due to the high sea temperatures and weak wind shear, the two models are both forecasting the possibility of the system becoming a typhoon on Thursday, and it is expected to be much stronger than Talim. However, due to the uncertainty of the simulations, Wu said its impact on Taiwan is still pending.