Avoiding conflict and begging for peace will lead to Taiwan Strait war

畏戰與乞和都是在養戰

Taiwanese must have resolve to defend themselves

The Taiwanese have been listening to threats of military force for seventy-two years. Since the deaths of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) and Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), the Chinese have not heard any violent threats coming from Taiwan.

Since the end of the Korean War, the “Taiwan issue” has become one of the four major crises in the world, which includes the splitting of Berlin during the Cold War, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Six-Day War. For 30 years, these four major crises touched the nerves of the world, and also had Warsaw Pact member states and NATO on the verge of triggering a third world war.

Over time, the other three crises were resolved one by one, while only the "Taiwan issue” still occasionally attracts global attention, given China's territorial ambitions. This has added to regional unease.

China is only a part of Taiwanese history

The Taiwan Strait issue or the Taiwan issue is not China's “internal affairs.” It is correct to say that it is one of the remaining unresolved international issues from WWII, but after Chiang Kai-shek brought the "Republic of China" to Taiwan and after the Taiwanese sacrificed their blood and youth in pursuit of freedom, democracy, and human rights, it has become a democratized country praised globally.

For all intents and purposes, Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country. Whether it is called the "Republic of China" or "Taiwan," its fate is now in the hands of the 23 million Taiwanese, and this has long been an indisputable international fact.

Long-existing facts are the most powerful legal basis.

For many years, the Chinese government and its expansionist citizens have claimed that Taiwan is an inalienable territory of China, completely deviating from historical facts and all legal basis. Any madman or lunatic can hold up a sign every day in front of Taipei 101 and shout, "Taipei 101 is mine!"

China’s claims are just as absurd and ridiculous.

A little bit of reading about Taiwan’s history will show that the first countries to occupy and exercise sovereignty over Taiwan were the Netherlands and Spain, not China. Where does this idea that Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times and is an “indivisible” part of China come from?

The tragedy of Taiwan is that for nearly 400 years, it has been continuously occupied by the Netherlands, Spain, the Ming Dynasty-pirate Koxinga, the Qing Empire, the Japanese Empire, and the government of the Republic of China, which have all established regimes on this beautiful island.

It was not until Taiwanese activists made the nation a democracy more than 30 years ago that nearly four hundred years of foreign colonial rule came to an end.

The Republic of China has undergone quantitative and qualitative changes that took root in Taiwan. Taiwan belongs only to the current 23 million Taiwanese, with no distinction of personal wealth or regard as to who came first.

Taiwan has not been a part of China since ancient times, let alone a part of the People’s Republic of China, which has never ruled Taiwan for even a minute or a second! To be more specific: China is only a part of Taiwan's history, and China is only one of many foreign colonial powers.

What Taiwan now inherits is not China's jurisdiction, but some Chinese culture and education of the past 70 years.

Taiwan is not a part of China

The once undeveloped China has finally become the second largest economy in the world and a global power after the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 60-70 years of fervent efforts to become a stronger nation. However, given that it was bullied by foreign powers in the past, China should set a good example by helping weaker nations rather than bullying them.

It should not attempt to make smaller countries pay for their past suffering.

To be frank, for such a vast country like China, a strong man's mentality will not be respected by others and will not last forever. Therefore, I have not set foot on Chinese territory so far.

After 1997, I did not visit Hong Kong, and after 1999, I did not visit Macau. When traveling to Moscow, I did so without transiting through Hong Kong and without flying over China's airspace.

It was better to take a detour from Bangkok to Frankfurt and then fly to Moscow.

Actually, I am not an anti-communist, I do not interfere in China's internal affairs, and I am not anti-China. I am only anti-war. However, as long as China does not give up its territorial ambitions for Taiwan, I am forced to dissociate myself from the Chinese.

I can't even establish personal friendships.

The fact that the Taiwanese are pro-U.S. and anti-China is due to innate conditions: the U.S. has no desire to annex Taiwan, as long as it maintains its regional influence. China, on the other hand, desires to dominate Taiwan and threatens to re-educate the Taiwanese.

So, how can the Taiwanese be anti-American and pro-China? Under such conditions, even those slogans urging amicable and peaceful relations with China are nonsense.

Taiwan, since the Second World War, and especially after the Korean War, is not something that China can ask for. The strategic location of the Taiwan Strait and the political status of Taiwan are closely related to the peace and economic development of the region.

Defending Taiwan's democracy and peace not only concerns the interests of the Taiwanese but is also inseparable from the region's international relations. The U.S.’ Taiwan Relations Act clearly states that "peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States.”

Additionally, could the provisions of the U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty be extended to cover a Taiwan conflict? It is not difficult to imagine.

The possible responses of the U.S. and Japan to Taiwan's security, whether it is continued ambiguity or clarification, are already part of the intrinsic nature of the Taiwan issue.

As Taiwan has been safe from China for 70 years, we must admit frankly: This is "Made In USA." Without the help of the U.S., Chiang Kai-shek's regime would have been unrevivable after the Chinese Civil War.

Without the subsequent long-term American military and economic assistance, Taiwan could not have achieved what it is today. However, Taiwan-U.S. relations are not one-way, they are mutual.

Taiwan needs the U.S., and the U.S. also needs Taiwan to jointly prevent China from expanding its power and jeopardizing the peace, stability, and development of the region. If Taiwan becomes part of China, the world will change radically.

Countries involved in the dispute over islands in the South China Sea will be greatly affected. This is why Beijing has recently stepped up its military intimidation against Taiwan and conducted military exercises.

Nancy Pelosi and the Emperor’s new clothes

China has been intimidating Taiwan for more than 70 years, but it does not dare to actually attack because it does not dare to fight. Anyone who has read up on war history will know that there is a huge difference between a land war and a naval war.

In the Korean War, Vietnam War, the war in Afghanistan, and the current Ukraine-Russia War, soldiers can walk across the border with guns while armored vehicles can drive straight through. However, just remember how hard and difficult it was for troops during the Normandy landings.

A Taiwan Strait crossing would require a massive number of troops that not even Sun Wu-kong (孫悟空), the Monkey King, could pull off with one of his magical hairs.

What's more, China has not won a naval or aerial battle for hundreds of years. Therefore, for the past 70 years, it could only resort to threatening Taiwan.

Not being willing to fight has its limitations.

In recent years, some people argue that China is not the military superpower it used to be millenniums ago. Who would not wish for Beijing to be timid and overcautious?

The U.S. and China have been locked in confrontational exchanges, but the basic situation has not changed: The U.S. is still a major power at sea and in the air.

After WWII, only the U.S. — not China — had real experience in sea and air combat.

So far, it has been involved in more than 80 overseas conflicts. There is a big difference between the military parades, large-scale military exercises, and actual combat. Everyone knows this.

The voices of the Chinese urging violence and intimidation are getting louder and stronger. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan brought the U.S. face-to-face with China in a necessary showdown.

Beijing applied an unprecedented level of intimidation, even threatening to take down Pelosi's aircraft. It treated the speaker’s visit to Taiwan as America’s formal recognition of Taiwan independence.

Before Pelosi arrived in Taiwan, I left a message in a chat group with my friends:

America and China have both shown their hands. Now we shall see who is cowardly, the U.S. or China.

If Pelosi did not come, China would have the final say on Taiwan issues in the future, and the U.S. would withdraw itself from the matter. If Pelosi did come to Taiwan and China continued with its intimidation tactics and large-scale military exercises, everyone would see through the facade.

After Pelosi followed through with her trip, she turned into the child that saw the emperor’s new clothes for what it really was. Upon her departure from Taiwan, I left another message in the chat group:

Now it is time to let China conduct a major military exercise, let it revel in its belated action to save a little face. Taiwanese should not be too concerned about it.

Ma Ying-jeou says the U.S. will not send troops to Taiwan

Before and after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, politicians from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party handled the situation in a low-key manner, without irrationality or arrogance, and showed an unexpected level of decency. On the contrary, politicians from the Kuomintang (KMT) party opposed the trip as China launched military exercises around the nation, which was sad to see.

The nature of military coercion is to make the enemy frightened, surrender, and panic without fighting. Many KMT members have gone down this path.

Their words and deeds have made China more and more powerful, and they have contributed to the effectiveness of Beijing’s intimidation strategy. The KMT even sent its vice chairman, Andrew Hsia (夏立言) to China at the height of the CCP’s military drills, saying: "Any later, and there will be no time for another trip.”

As a result, the vice chairman departed with a look of fear on his face and the whole trip seemed like a gesture begging for peace. What did he get back in return? What has changed?

I don't want to repeat the speeches of other scholars, political commentators, retired generals, or politicians. I just want to mention Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), who said that if China attacks Taiwan, the U.S. will not send troops.

Ma, who has served as president for eight years, has only increased China's aspirations and destroyed Taiwan's ardor.

Even after the Korean War broke out, the U.S. sent the Seventh Fleet to assist in the defense of the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, every now and then, the U.S. Seventh Fleet also sails through the strait.

The U.S. has never left the region. How can Ma say they will never come? In an invasion, China will well engage in the sea and air of the strait.

Bombarding Taiwan will only make the world see the tragic circumstances of the Taiwanese and China’s barbarity.

The KMT’s comments and actions begging for peace and cowering from conflict are actually increasing the possibility of a war. They are no different from Chinese military intimidation.

How can such a party win the general election? It is so far from the trend of the Taiwanese public and the trend of the world.

The power of the DPP is unbridled, partly due to the ignorance and absurdity of the KMT.

Taiwanese must be determined to defend themselves

War is a major event that will see either the survival or extermination of a nation and lead to the destruction of families. Of course, Taiwan cannot rely solely on the U.S. for its defense.

The Taiwanese have only just freed themselves from 400 years of foreign rule. They will not hand over their freedom, democracy, and human rights to China and become slaves once again.

Self-help is the first rule of national survival. Then, you can call for international help.

Currently, there are many Taiwanese like Robert Tsao (曹興誠), founder of United Microelectronics Corp., who actively organize people to fight against China and protect Taiwan. Tsao’s remarks have aroused enthusiastic responses, so I don't need to say more here.

Police force: Fourth branch of the military

Usually, we say there are three military branches, including the Army, Navy, and Air Force. These compose the regular forces under the Ministry of Defense. However, the defense of small countries does not only rely on regular troops, given their expensive budget.

When an enemy country invades, if the regular military is insufficient, the defensive line is easily broken. However, at this point, local militia and other forces can participate in destroying the enemy.

This is what Tsao has in mind with the Kuma Academy (黑熊學院), which is a private military training organization that aims to train 3 million civilians to learn various defense skills, how to provide first aid, operate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and use radio communications.

There are many Taiwanese who love the nation and the question is how to organize these people, who are determined to give their lives to Taiwan, without affecting their current daily livelihood and work. Also, how can they be mobilized immediately in the event of a conflict?

The police know the local neighborhoods best. The regular military will need to fight street battles and engage in guerrilla warfare when preventing a foreign invasion.

The military is definitely not as knowledgeable as the local police. They also lack familiarity of local terrain, features, and residents.

Thus, Taiwan should form a new branch of the military: the police force. This force would be ten times larger than the regular military.

By turning a police station into a company during a battle, one precinct would become a battalion.

These police officers should receive various levels of training, including officer training. Let them be both part of the police and military, so they can also enjoy the benefits of being a soldier.

Wartime militias should be well organized and trained in peacetime. This would let China know: Bring it on!

More than half a year ago, I invited several former generals, former high-ranking police officers, and scholars to study together a set of plans for establishing a police force, including relevant legislation and regulations. When I shared this plan with a powerful high-ranking DPP official, they said, "We've already been thinking about it."

Frankly, I'm upset. How can bureaucrats come up with such an idea? They only know how to brag.

They are rigid people with no new aspirations.

When I was the chairman of the DPP, I proposed a demilitarized zone on Kinmen, the withdrawal of regular troops from the outlying island, and leaving local law and order to be maintained by the coast guard and police to the party’s Central Standing Committee. I also suggested there be direct flights between Kinmen and Xiamen and Matsu and Fuzhou.

Additionally, I recommended Kinmen and Matsu be turned into a political special zone and to have their future autonomy decided via a referendum. However, when I proposed this in the Legislative Yuan, I was immediately opposed by both DPP and KMT politicians.

Even the residents of the islands were manipulated to speak out against me.

The main reasons I persuaded the Central Standing Committee at the time were:

1. It was impossible for Kinmen and Matsu to be used as defensive outposts for Taiwan.

2. The islands could not serve as a "springboard” for taking back China.

The above-mentioned "defensive outposts" and "counter-offensive springboards" are myths created by Chiang Kai-shek to deceive the Taiwanese. The fact is that once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, more than 100,000 local Taiwanese soldiers will immediately become hostages, unable to move.

One-third of Taiwan's defenses will be immediately lost.

3. During the martial law period, the residents of Kinmen and Matsu were subjected to a high degree of oppression by the government for too long, and they should be given back their basic human rights.

Now more than 20 years have passed, whose view is right? I just want to remind the residents of Kinmen and Matsu that you opposed me in the past, but now there are many cross-strait issues.

If the Taiwan government decides to increase troops on the islands and deploy its most powerful artillery there, will you raise your hands in favor or protest?

It is time to give those living on the outlying islands a peaceful, free, and dignified life. It’s also time for the islands to become a peaceful, demilitarized zone in the Taiwan Strait.

A peaceful solution to the Taiwan issue is the only way

Originally, I just wanted to say something straight from my heart. After writing so much, I still can’t present the Taiwan issue in its entirety.

However, I have written several books and talked a lot about it and I must stop writing to draw conclusions.

The Taiwan question, in terms of military, political, economic, cultural, and international relations, is not something that China can solve by force. It is not that Beijing is not unwilling or cannot bear to fight, it does not dare to fight.

The achievements of the People's Republic of China are hard-won but a war in the Taiwan Strait may change this very quickly.

It is the Chinese who should think carefully, not the Taiwanese who should be afraid. A war started by the CPP may actually make Taiwan and China officially live in a more civilized international society.

Who would want to be associated or become friends with a group that shouts and fights every day?

I am a rebel who has fought against dictatorship and foreign invasion at all costs throughout my life. My life has proven this—I'm not just repeating a slogan.

I am a staunch pacifist and an advocate for reconciliation. People like me cannot tolerate dictatorships and violent invasions.

May the Chinese think deeply.

May the Taiwanese have resolve.

Shih Ming-te (施明德) was born in 1941. He served as the Democratic Progressive Party Chairman from 1994-1996. At an early age, he was already determined to overthrow the dictatorship of Chiang Kai-shek. When he was 16, he applied to the Republic of China Military Academy and was accepted. At the age of 21, he was prosecuted for being involved with the Formosan Independence Movement and sentenced to life imprisonment. He was released from prison after serving 15 years. Then in 1980, he was imprisoned again for his involvement in the Meilidao Incident. It was not until 1990 that he ended his 25-and-a-half-year-long imprisonment and began to enter politics, working hard to promote the development of freedom and democracy in Taiwan.