Ukraine-Taiwan comparisons don’t stand up to scrutiny

拿烏克蘭與台灣做比較經不起推敲

The invasion of Ukraine doesn’t mean Taiwan is more vulnerable, unless the West fails to respond appropriately


KAOHSIUNG (Taiwan News) — The world watched on in horror on Thursday as Russian shells dropped on key strategic locations in Ukraine and Russian troops rolled across the border to occupy the country.

On Monday evening, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his country would recognize the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics and send what he laughably described as “peacekeeping” troops into sovereign Ukrainian territory to defend these two self-declared separatist states.

As he did so, one of the trending subjects on Twitter around the world was #Taiwan.

It has become a common theme of media discussion of the Ukraine crisis that if Russia is allowed to get away with annexing parts or even all of Ukraine, it would effectively give the green light for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Some observers have even speculated that China could use the focus on the situation in Ukraine as an opportunity to invade Taiwan now.

These views betray a misunderstanding of the dynamic between Taiwan and China which is wholly different to the situation between Russia and Ukraine.

Operational complexities

Firstly, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is vastly more complex and challenging than a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine share a land border stretching for more than 2,000km. Much of the eastern part of Ukraine has been plagued by Russian-backed separatists since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, meaning Kyiv’s administrative and military control there is weak. As a result, Russian troops are likely to face minimal initial resistance when occupying Donetsk and Luhansk.

In contrast, Taiwan is located some 100 miles off the coast of China and has very few beaches where PLA troops could easily land. These beaches are well-defended by Taiwan’s highly trained and well-equipped military which operates on behalf of a united democratic government representing a population largely united by a common desire to not fall under Chinese occupation.

While China’s military power might eventually overwhelm any Taiwanese defenses, it would be a long, bloody, and complicated military conflict. Chinese forces cannot just roll across the border as we have seen Russian tanks doing this week.

The idea that any invasion of Taiwan could be imminent is also not credible. Russian troops have been observed massing on the borders of Ukraine for months. Satellite footage has revealed no similar increase in Chinese troops near the coastline where any invasion of Taiwan would have to be launched from.

Motivation

There is then the question of motivation. As a few perceptive commentators such as Ian Birrel have noted, Putin is attacking Ukraine from a position of weakness not a position of strength. Their invasion is a desperate roll of the dice from a regime failing in both its domestic and overseas agendas.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping (習近平) is also facing significant domestic challenges, particularly economic ones, while his foreign policy agenda is delivering mixed results at best.

China might be persona non grata in the West, but in the developing world, its Belt and Road Initiative is still hoovering up allies desperate for Chinese cash. Argentina was the latest to sign up only last week.

But Xi is in no way backed into the corner in the way that Putin finds himself and he has no need to take the inevitable economic hit that sanctions following an invasion of Taiwan would doubtless incur.

The separatism paradox

The CCP will also be far from comfortable with the pretext Putin has chosen to use for his invasion of Ukraine.

While citing Russia’s historic control of Ukraine from the Soviet era is straight out of the CCP playbook, choosing to back two self-declared independent regions is an endorsement of separatism that Xi will be far from comfortable with.

The CCP officially considers Taiwan to be a separatist province and it frequently uses separatism as an excuse to crack down on Chinese-controlled regions such as Tibet, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, not to mention Hong Kong.

It will be interesting to see how Chinese state-controlled media covers the invasion of Ukraine in the coming days and also how the CCP’s official messaging tries to thread the needle on this particular issue.

While it is therefore misguided to draw too many parallels between the Ukraine and Taiwan, there is one area where authorities in both Taipei and Beijing will be watching closely and that is how the West responds to Russia’s invasion.

As British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recognized in his speech to the Munich Security Conference last weekend, if there is a robust and effective response to Russia’s actions from the West, this will send a clear message to the CCP that any annexation of Taiwan will not be tolerated.

He is right but so far it appears this ‘robust response’ has only amounted to economic sanctions, not boots on the ground. We will see how this develops in the coming days but if the West stops at sanctions alone, that would be a mistake.

Sanctions were the response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and while there was an undoubted economic hit, Russia coped and still controls the region. Since then, it has been insulating its economy against further sanctions through actions like stockpiling gold.

Sanctions alone will not deter Putin, even if they target him directly. The West must commit to supporting Ukraine in reclaiming its stolen territory, either through direct military support or ensuring that the Ukrainian military has the tools and skills it needs to push Russian forces back.