Taiwan's population to decline faster than World Population Review claims

台灣人口下降速度超過「世界人口綜述」

Taiwan government disputes 2019 World Population Review data, country to be 'super-aged' by 2022


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – According to the 2019 World Population Review, published earlier in March, Taiwan’s outlook for population growth continues to decline in line with previous predictions, albeit with some discrepancy. However, the country is still on track to be a "super aged society" in the near future.

The World Population Review places Taiwan’s current fertility rate at 1.218 children per woman and the population’s current annual growth rate at 0.27 percent.

However, Taiwan’s Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has disputed the fertility rate of 1.218 children per woman, offered by the report. The CDC places the figure at 1.06 children per woman.

According to Taiwan’s National Development Council (NDC), which bases its statement on CDC data, at the current pace, Taiwan is likely to reach a negative population growth rate by the year 2022.

The Liberty Times reports that the discrepancy between the two fertility rates, may be due to older data sets from 2017 that were not updated to include 2018 data for the publication of the World Population Review.

The World Population Review predicts that Taiwan will experience a slight but unsustainable growth over the next decade increasing from 23.7 million people to 24.1 million people in 2030.

However, by 2050 as the super-aged society begins to contract, Taiwan is predicted to shrink to a society of 22.7 million people. By 2090, that number is anticipated to reach 16.7 million people if trends continue.

The individual country report on Taiwan says that on average a woman in Taiwan gives birth every two minutes, with one death on average every three minutes.

Every 18 minutes, Taiwan is likely to increase its population by a single migrant. Factored with the birth rate, Taiwan’s population averages a net gain of one person every eight minutes, according to the report.

However, Taiwan’s NDC cautions that there are errors with the data reported by the World Population Review, and that Taiwan’s population is likely to shrink at a faster pace than the Review suggests.

According to the 2019 Review, calculating according to total percentage of the world population, the fastest growing countries are predictably, China, India, the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil in that order.

However, the countries with the highest individual growth rates are in the Middle East and Africa.