Analysts says Taiwan-US deal does little to change TSMC chip dominance

分析家稱，台美貿易協議對改變台積電晶片市場的主導地位影響甚微。

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The recent Taiwan-US deal to boost semiconductor production in the US will not break American dependency on Taiwan’s advanced chips anytime soon, analysts have said.

Taiwan’s importance in the global chip supply chain has made deterring a Chinese attack a strategic priority for the US and its partners, CNBC reported.

The US seeks to relocate 40% of Taiwan’s semiconductor ecosystem domestically, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. However, TSMC CFO Wendell Huang (黃仁昭) said on Thursday that the company’s most advanced technologies will be kept in Taiwan for “very intensive collaboration” between its domestic research and development teams and manufacturing operations, according to CNBC.

Taiwan strictly enforces the N-2 rule, which limits overseas fabs to only using technologies two generations behind TSMC’s most advanced domestic processes. Taiwan has started volume production of 2nm chips in December and is already developing A14 logic process technology.

Sravan Kundojjala, an analyst at SemiAnalysis, said Taiwan’s “silicon shield” will continue through the end of the decade. The four to five-year gap in technology guarantees Taiwan maintains its advantage, Kundojjala said. The world economy would face a “depression-level event if Taiwan were invaded tomorrow,” she added.

TSMC began constructing its first fab in Arizona in 2020, which initiated high-volume production of 4-nm chips in late 2024. Its second fab's outer structure was completed in 2025, and volume production of 3-nm chips is expected to start in 2028. The company broke ground for its third fab in April 2025, which will produce 2-nm and A16 chips by 2030.

The company plans to have six semiconductor fabs in Arizona altogether, as well as two advanced packaging facilities and an R&D center.

The new tariff deal does not adequately address the shortage of trained workers and high production costs, leading to delays in TSMC’s Arizona fabs, according to William Reinsch, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Taiwan’s engineering talent pipeline and chip production capabilities are “not replicable at scale anywhere else,” Reinsch said.

Dennis Lu-Chung Weng (翁履中), an associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University, said, “The semiconductor ecosystem cannot be relocated overnight, so the silicon shield may weaken but still exist in the near term.”

Taiwan understands the risk of giving away too much of its chip technology. National Science and Technology Council Minister Wu Cheng-wen (吳誠文) said last year that it was essential for Taiwan to keep its most advanced semiconductor research and development domestic to avoid being “hollowed out,” according to the Financial Times. “If we move our R&D overseas, it’ll be dangerous for us,” Wu said.