Taiwan Real Estate Alliance predicts market rebound

台灣不動產聯盟預測房市將反彈

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Taiwan Real Estate Alliance on Monday said Taiwan’s housing market has likely reached its bottom and may be poised to recover next year, despite what it described as excessive government interference that has dampened demand, per UDN.

Alliance head Lin Cheng-hsiung (林正雄) told reporters at the group’s year-end press conference that more people have begun viewing properties in recent months, signaling renewed buying interest. He forecast “increased volume and stable prices” in 2025.

Lin said the real estate sector’s biggest obstacle has been the Central Bank’s seventh round of selective credit controls, introduced in September 2024, which he said abruptly froze the market for older homes and pre-sale projects.

As of the end of September, only 28,100 pre-sale units had been sold nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 76,000 units, or 73%, Lin said. He estimated total property transactions this year will reach about 256,000, down 27% from 2023 and marking a nine-year low and the second-lowest level in 35 years.

Despite falling transaction volume, Lin said underlying demand remains “rigid” and has merely been delayed. He pointed to Taiwan’s strong GDP growth this year, the highest in 15 years and second highest in 31 years, as a reason for optimism.

Even so, he said the construction industry, a major driver of domestic demand, has stalled. He urged policymakers to stimulate domestic demand to support broader economic growth.

Lin predicted five key trends in next year’s housing market: continued economic pressure, shifting family structures, evolving social behavior, a growing rental market, and increasing demand for home upgrades among elderly buyers. Smaller-scale developments and hotel-style residences offering full property services are likely to stand out, he said.

On policy, Lin urged the government to strengthen support for young and first-time homebuyers, conditionally ease restrictions on second-home mortgages, and allow market forces, rather than government directives, to guide the sector.

The alliance called for raising the loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers to ease down payment burdens, creating stronger protections for vulnerable groups, and expanding the supply of social housing. It also recommended relaxing mortgage rules for families upgrading to larger homes after the birth of a child, which it said could help boost Taiwan’s birth rate.

Lin said owner-occupiers are likely to reenter the market next year as economic momentum lifts demand for commercial and industrial real estate. With an election year ahead and youth mortgage subsidies set to expire, he predicted the government would roll out new housing measures.

“These factors together suggest the housing market will restart and recover next year,” he said.