IMF raises Taiwan's 2025 growth forecast to 3.7%

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）上調台灣2025年經濟成長預測至3.7%

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised Taiwan’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.7%.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF increased its estimate of Taiwan's real GDP growth for 2025 by 0.8 percentage points from 2.9% in April, per CNA. The 2026 forecast, however, was revised downward from 2.5% to 2.1%.

The IMF projected Taiwan’s consumer price inflation at 1.7% for this year, slightly lower than the 1.8% predicted in April, and 1.6% for 2026, unchanged from the previous forecast. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.4% in both 2025 and 2026.

Reuters cited the IMF as saying that recent trade deals between the US and several major economies helped avert large-scale tariffs initially threatened by US President Donald Trump, with few countries taking retaliatory action. This led the IMF to raise its global growth forecast for the second time since April.

The fund now expects global real GDP to grow 3.2% in 2025, up from 3% in July and 2.8% in April. The 2026 global growth forecast remains at 3.1%, unchanged from July.

However, it warned that a renewed US-China trade war under Trump could significantly slow global output.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that, in addition to lower-than-expected tariffs, the world economy has benefited from private-sector adaptability, including early imports, rapid supply chain adjustments, fiscal stimulus in Europe and China, a weaker US dollar, and the AI investment boom, per Reuters. “So bottom line: not as bad as we feared,” Gourinchas said, “but worse than we anticipated a year ago, and worse than we need.”