US former rear admiral defends non-escalation in Taiwan Strait

美國前海軍少將為不將台海局勢升級而防衛

Mike Studeman advocates resisting provocations and armed conflict in outer islands


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Former US Rear Admiral and current military intelligence adviser Mike Studeman participated in a simulated Taiwan Strait war game where he advised Taiwan not to give Beijing an excuse to escalate tensions.

Studeman recommended exposing Beijing's narrative through video and audio to counter Chinese propaganda internationally. In the simulated war games, Studemen's Taiwan Group did not counterattack to launch the first strike after Chinese ships invaded Taiwan's territorial waters, including the capture of Dongsha Island.

Studeman communicated with CNA via email that claiming the moral high ground could be difficult in an era of disinformation. "Frankly, China has more propaganda tools in place, all of which are ready to spread Beijing's propaganda, portraying itself as a victim of active aggression by Taiwan."

He is a national security researcher at the military think tank, MITRE. He visited Taiwan in 2020 when he was the director of J2, responsible for Indo-Pacific Command intelligence, becoming one of the highest-ranking US military officers to visit Taiwan in recent years.

In the worst-case scenario, Studeman said that Taiwan’s actions could cause Beijing to take powerful countermeasures. This may give China an excuse to quickly escalate the conflict or establish new rules of engagement.

He said low-level tactical cases are litmus tests that will demonstrate political support from allies such as the US, Japan, and other countries. He said it is difficult to predict the level of support political leaders are willing to provide to Taiwan.

In terms of preparation for violent tactical interactions, Studeman recommends taking the lead to win the information war by exposing China’s actions and portraying it as an aggressor, provocateur, and threat, not just to Taiwan, but to all countries in the region.

"Taiwan must constantly warn China that it is approaching red lines that will force Taiwan to respond strongly. The message must be delivered quickly and clearly before, during, and after a crisis."

He also suggested that Taiwan provide videos, radio calls, audio, map-based replays, and other evidence to prove that China's continued expansion and aggression are leading to a crisis point. This documentation will help prove Taiwan's position.

Studeman urged Taiwan to prepare easy-to-understand multimedia packages in advance of future conflict and continuously disseminate information through all available channels. This will give it a better chance of winning over international public opinion.

Taiwan must monitor China’s narrative and quickly expose any false, incomplete, or fabricated messages. Taiwan must act swiftly and repeatedly because China will adjust its messaging and counter-messaging strategies.

Studeman said Taiwan needs to prove it has made every effort to avoid a direct response to provocations, including broadcasting warnings, signaling and warning shots, closing in on enemy warships, and activating fire control systems.

"Taiwan's resolve will be tested. Failure to demonstrate the appropriate use of strength and resolve at the right time and in the right way will only lead to deeper and more unacceptable violations, ultimately undermining the defenses necessary to protect Taiwan's survival as a democratic regime."

In the most recent simulated war game, Taiwan media were concerned that there was little response to China's occupation of Dongsha Island and the intrusion of government vessels into Taiwan's 22 km (12 nautical miles) territorial waters.

Retired Army Commander Hu Chen-pu (胡鎮埔), who participated in the war games, said on Wednesday that China's occupation of Dongsha Island was to result in an early decisive battle. As Dongsha Island would not affect Taiwan's overall defense, the army did not rush to assist.

Hu said that Chinese ships that enter Taiwan's 22 km territorial waters should be monitored and driven away to avoid overreaction.