Taiwan-US defense forum suggests solutions to deal with China threat

台美國防論壇提出應對中國威脅的解決方案

Remote drones, critical infrastructure, and energy supply key to coping with potential conflict


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Fifty-plus members of the Arlington, Virginia, US-Taiwan Business Council filled a conference room in Taipei on Wednesday for an annual defense forum.

The forum is part of week-long activities that include visits with government officials, political parties, and site inspections. It's all done to bolster Taiwan's defense preparedness vis-a-vis China.

In opening remarks, the president of the council, Rupert Hammond-Chambers, said, “The threat level is as great as it has ever been in my 30 years of doing this work.” He said there was “100%” buy-in from Taiwanese politicians who take the threat seriously, though military procurements take time.

Hammond-Chambers cited bipartisan support both in Washington and Taiwan due to China's constant gray zone activities. However, he added that a KMT-TPP legislative coalition has created headwinds to military procurement.

“I do not think they want to do this and derail purchases, as the relationship took 10-15 years to rebuild. But as they say, the devil is in the details.”

The next speaker, Christine Wormuth, former secretary of the US Army and an expert in threat assessment and deterrence, said a blunt message needed to be sent to China, "Today is not the day that we want to change the status quo through a unilateral show of force.”

Wormuth characterized the US as a "Pacific nation" with territories in Hawaii and Guam, along with a strong military and economic presence. Even so, for 20 years when the US military was preoccupied with Iraq and Afghanistan, it allowed China to develop its military and utilize economic coercion in the region, including frequent intrusions into Taiwan's territorial waters.

"I would like the government to increase spending on defense to at least 3% of GDP or more. They have the resources, and they are substantial enough." Wormuth said increased defense spending would send a positive signal to the US that Taiwan was committed to its defense.

Wormoth said the government shouldn't be solely responsible for defense, as domestic industry must also play a major role. She said partnering with US companies can shorten the development process to just a few years.

Building Infrastructure

Another defense expert speaking at the forum with two decades of experience in the Pentagon was Planate Management Group President Chris Decker. His firm builds military bases, barracks, and logistics centers, often in difficult environments such as Ukraine.

"No doubt Taiwan has some of the finest civil engineers here, but they have to learn how to integrate their work to provide critical support when under attack. There is a lot that Taiwan can learn."

Decker said traditional infrastructure in Taiwan has some degree of fortification due to seismic requirements, but it is not able to withstand the demands of future warfare. Topping the list of concerns is Taiwan's energy grid.

"Is Taiwan producing enough energy? Is the power grid resilient to cyberattacks? Taiwan should take lessons from Russia's attack on Ukraine, where they targeted transformers, which need to be hardened with large Hesco barriers or sandbags."

According to Decker, protecting the energy grid can be done through planning and tabletop exercises. Also, routing or managing electromagnetic pulses can protect the critical energy supply.

"Ukraine was able to maintain its energy supply as a gas pipeline from Russia to Europe remained intact and was not targeted. They also have coal and gas, and a nuclear facility is still supplying power," said Decker.

Taiwan may be particularly vulnerable to energy disruption as the nation transitioned away from nuclear power on May 17. Taiwan is now seeking to generate 50% of its power through liquefied natural gas.

"LNG is hard to store and does not last long. During the last disruption by the People's Liberation Army, there were estimates that Taiwan would have just two weeks of energy left before the hard decision would have to be made as to who could keep lights on," said Hammond-Chambers.

He said that when forced to ensure energy security, Taiwan should stockpile coal reserves and resist the temptation to dismantle coal incinerators despite citizen demands. And according to Hammond-Chambers, small modular nuclear reactors are not yet ready.

Changing winds of war

Hammond-Chambers said previous defense negotiations have focused too much on maximizing weapons procurements and not enough on infrastructure or resilience.

"It might be nice to buy something shiny and new, but if you park it outside in an environment like this, it will not last very long."

He said the war in Ukraine is a great humanitarian tragedy, but out of war comes great innovation. And just like the invention of the fighter aircraft in 1939, innovations in drone technology pioneered by Ukrainians are tilting the battlefield.

The lesson learned from Ukraine is that cheap first-person-view drones, operated remotely through the assistance of a camera on the drone, can take out more expensive military equipment such as bombers, tanks, bridges, and even naval ships.

Ukrainians are fighting for their lives, and innovation is astounding as changes in technology and tactics are happening every three weeks. They are miles ahead of everyone, and the US is still catching up," said Red Cat Holdings Asia-Pacific Business Development Director Stayne Hoff.

His company began as a startup in 2019, specializing in unmanned aircraft systems and specifically repurposing commercially available products for military or police use. UA can be used for short-range reconnaissance missions or munitions deployment, and its company is also involved in unmanned surface vessels.

"The US Army is engaging with small companies and has a modular system approach that is interoperable with existing systems." Hoff has been coming to Taiwan for four years to source components and sensors as well as complete units, but believes that much more work needs to be done.

One challenge for drone makers is rooting out the red supply chain with exposure to China. Hoff admits it is hard to get Chinese content out of drones, as just-in-time inventory models and cheaper pricing have allowed China an inroad into the industry.

His company faces yet another hurdle, as not only are components from China barred, but he is also forced to source alternate suppliers to prove an ability to ramp up production quickly, whether it's warheads or processors.

"We call it God’s work, cleaning out the red supply chain. We just simply have to do it," said Hoff.

Sharing defense tech

When asked by an audience member if US companies are worried about sharing drone intellectual property with Taiwanese companies, Hoff said this was not the case for his company, as the pace of innovation is so fast that there is little to protect. The nature of modular systems is that they can interact with different suppliers and actively seek out the best sensors and components.

Hammond-Chambers said Taiwan's science parks and other industrial clusters have helped fuel Taiwan's semiconductor industry. He said drones are benefiting from a similar arrangement in Chiayi, though Hoff did not agree.

"There is no one simple recipe as to whether clustering will accelerate the industry. Working with partners who have experience is a great first start, as it allows you to skip mistakes and potentially get there a decade faster," said Hoff.

Hoff believes Taiwan can succeed in dual-use drone production for commercial and military purposes. He said we should study Ukraine's use of asymmetric warfare and how it has been used to neutralize an adversary.

According to Hoff, Ukraine had 30 companies producing 30,000 drones a month in 2023 and has boosted production dramatically, with 200 companies now involved in the industry, making 100,000 drones a month. He added that production is decentralized, often taking place in underground spaces and apartment buildings.

And though China may frown upon and actively discourage drone components or complete models from being available in Taiwan, “All that matters is Taiwan gets the capabilities it needs,” according to Hammond-Chambers.