Taiwan’s Academia Sinica rules out 3.1% GDP for 2025

台灣中央研究院預測2025年GDP成長率將低於3.1%

Institute says nation may have to address non-tariff trade barriers, adds inflation likely to stay above 2%


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – Even though US President Donald Trump has decided to apply the lower tariff rate of 10% for Taiwan and other countries for 90 days, an economic growth rate of 3.1% will be impossible to achieve this year, Academia Sinica said Thursday.

The figure had been put forward by the academic institution late last year, but even a 3% GDP increase had now become impossible, per Radio Taiwan International. Academia Sinica Vice President Peng Shin-kun (彭信坤) said the forecast would have to be revised downward, but how far down still required some months of observation.

Because Taiwan’s tariffs on imports, except 17.5% on cars and 30% on health supplements, were already quite low, an offer to lower tariffs was unlikely to be welcomed by the Trump administration, he said. Instead, Taiwan would have to address non-tariff trade barriers including alleged interference in currency markets, quotas, and restrictions on food imports based on health considerations.

The Academia Sinica also estimated that the tariffs could trigger outflows of capital and a decline in exports, causing the depreciation of the New Taiwan dollar. As a result, inflation is likely to stay above 2% during the year.