Climate change could erase winters in Taiwan by 2060

在 2060 年氣候變遷可能消除台灣的冬天

Publicly listed companies will be required to produce sustainability reports with ESG plans this year


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A National Science and Technology Council and Ministry of Environment report projected that Taiwan could stop experiencing winters by 2060 due to climate change.

The 2024 report said Taiwan summers could extend to over 150 days by 2040 and that winters could shrink to 45 days by 2050. It also predicted that summers could last seven months by the end of the 21st century, with 75 more days exceeding 36 C.

Taiwan's summers have lengthened by six to 12 days per decade over the past 50 years, with winters shortening by the same amount. The report indicated that winter begins later and ends earlier.

Taiwan is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its geography and high population density. The report said that key aspects of climate change in Taiwan include:

Rising temperatures

According to the Central Weather Administration, Taiwan experienced its warmest year on record last year, with an average temperature of 24.97 C, the highest in 127 years.

Taiwan's average temperature has risen 0.27 C per decade since 1990. Summer temperatures have increased by 0.15 C to 0.32 C, and winter temperatures by 0.15 C to 0.29 C.

The report predicted that by 2090, Taiwan's average temperature could rise about 4.5 C compared to pre-industrial levels. The increase would be more noticeable in cities due to the urban heat island effect, caused by paved surfaces and carbon emissions.

The report said the duration of extreme high temperatures above 35 C has significantly increased over the past 30 years. These events, originally occurring from May to October, will begin in April and continue through November.

Between 2017 and 2022, Taipei experienced the highest number of extreme heat days, averaging over 40 days annually and peaking at 88 days in 2020. Chiayi and Pingtung followed in the number of those days recorded.

From 1991 to 2020, Tainan averaged about 186 days annually with temperatures exceeding 30 C, the administration said.

Changes in rainfall patterns

National Central University Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences Graduate Institute Professor Li Ming-hsu (李明旭) said climate change would shift rainfall distribution in Taiwan. The north could see a four-to-six ratio of wet to dry days, while the south might experience a one-to-nine ratio.

The report indicated that consecutive dry days across Taiwan would increase, along with drought intensity and frequency. Extreme rainfall would become the norm, potentially occurring once a decade.

While annual rainfall in Taiwan has remained relatively stable, the administration reported an increased intensity in extreme rainfall, a decline in plum rains, and fewer consecutive wet days.

The administration said the number of typhoons affecting Taiwan could be halved by the end of the 21st century. While individual typhoons may bring more rain and wind, total typhoon-related rainfall is expected to decrease.

Taiwan's steep terrain makes it difficult to retain water during extreme rainfall, potentially causing severe droughts and water shortages. Intense rainfall may also overwhelm river and urban infrastructure drainage, leading to more frequent flooding.

Sea level rise

Greenpeace reported that global sea levels are rising about 0.19 centimeters annually. Taiwan's sea level rise rate is twice the global average, with coastal areas experiencing the most significant impacts.

Over the past 20 years, Taiwan's sea level has risen an average of 4.4 to 5.2 cm annually. Yunlin's coastline is most severely impacted by flooding, with 4.3% submerged, followed by Tainan at 3.29% and Keelung at 2.26%.

Greenpeace warned that if global warming is not addressed properly, Taiwan's sea level could rise by 0.56 meters by 2050 compared to 2000 levels, impacting about 1,398 square kilometers of the nation.

By 2050, New Taipei is projected to be the city most affected by rising sea levels, with 750,000 residents impacted, the highest among the six major cities. Tainan will have the largest affected area, with 426 square kilometers submerged.

Impacts on agriculture

Climate change has been impacting Taiwan's agricultural production. Rising temperatures and unstable rainfall are expected to reduce rice yields, with declines exceeding 20% in the north and east.

The International Rice Research Institute warned rice yields could drop 10% for every 1 C increase in nighttime temperatures. Warming temperatures are also increasing crop pests.

Rising temperatures could shift fruit tree species and cultivation areas, alter harvest seasons, and reduce fruit quality. Climate change is also expected to disrupt flowering, increasing production costs.

Taiwan relies on bee pollination for over 40 types of produce. Rising temperatures will lead to a decline in bee populations, resulting in significant yield reductions for some crops, potentially impacting agricultural production value by up to NT$50 billion (US$1.56 billion).

Government’s response plans

The government has set a target to reduce Taiwan's greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 30% by 2030, compared to 2005. Under the Climate Change Response Act, the nation is committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

The environmental ministry said Taiwan’s climate change policies cover disaster management, water resource utilization, land use, and energy supply. These policies are expected to strengthen the nation's resilience and ensure sustainable development.

Environmental Minister Peng Qi-ming (彭啟明) said publicly listed companies will be required to produce sustainability reports outlining their ESG plans and performance starting this year. Next year, the ministry will impose a carbon fee on power supply, manufacturing, and medical institutions with annual greenhouse gas emissions exceeding 25,000 tonnes.

The government will ban the sale of fuel-powered vehicles by 2040 as part of its net-zero carbon policy. The Ministry of Economic Affairs anticipates the installation of 250,000 charging stations across Taiwan by next year.

The environmental and transportation ministries will promote the complete electrification of government vehicles and buses by 2030. They also plan to push for the electrification of newly sold scooters by 2035.

The government will continue to promote renewable energy use by businesses. This year, installed renewable energy capacity is expected to reach 29 gigawatts, with a focus on 20 GW from solar energy and 5.6 GW from offshore wind power.