Trump's 'transactional diplomacy' threatens status of Taiwan

川普的「交易外交」威脅台灣地位

Foreign affairs analysts believe Trump distrusts allies and prioritizes bilateral economic ties over geopolitics


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Foreign relations experts warn U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will weaken alliances reducing a united front in deterring China from invading Taiwan.

Jacques deLisle, the University of Pennsylvania's Center for the Study of Contemporary China director, told CNA that a Trump election victory will pose a risk to Taiwan with Republican members of Congress with little recourse but to follow Trump's lead when it comes to Taiwan.

DeLisle said Trump's “transactional diplomacy” likely means Taiwan will need to pay more for U.S. defense costs, a similar request posed to NATO members. While Taiwan pays for U.S. arms purchases, Trump may ask Taipei to pay even more or market prices for future arms deals.

According to deLisle, Trump does not value U.S. commitments to allies. And no matter how he views Taiwan's security, Trump is expected to weaken the relationship between the U.S. and Japan, South Korea, and other Asian allies, which had been instrumental in deterring China.

Meanwhile, President Biden since taking office in 2021, has expressed a willingness to defend Taiwan on at least four occasions, however, those comments were mostly walked back by the White House. The most recent occasion was a Time magazine interview in June, where he refused to rule out the use of force in protecting Taiwan.

David Sacks, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, a Washington think tank, and author of a recent article, "Taiwan's Trump Conundrum,” noted that a Trump win could pose a major risk for Taiwan. Sacks said that Trump’s comments about Taiwan in several recent speeches could potentially upend U.S.-Taiwan relations.

Sacks said that despite Taiwan enjoying bipartisan support in Congress, the U.S. president typically enjoys a great deal of autonomy over foreign policy, with Congress unable to reign in Trump's diplomatic actions.

According to Sacks, many Congress members believe China should be deterred from invading Taiwan, and should deterrence fail, the U.S. should help defend Taiwan. This is based on Taiwan's geographical location and economic importance, as well as Taiwan's democracy. However, these arguments may not convince Trump, who may be reluctant to intervene.

Sacks added that Trump is skeptical of the relationship between the U.S. and its allies, characterizing many as “free riders” who derive benefits but are reluctant to contribute. If the U.S. does not help defend Taiwan, allies will be asked to assume more responsibility for their own security, benefiting the U.S. by reducing the demand for U.S. services.

As for Trump's claim that Taiwan is stealing the U.S. chip business, deLisle pointed out this is simply a misunderstanding. Most chip design and development companies are in the U.S., while TSMC and other chipmakers are contract manufacturers. The relationship between the two parties is cooperative, not competition-based.

Sacks said Trump’s views on Taiwan are consistent with his worldview and are unlikely to change. International relations for Trump are often dominated by bilateral economic relations, with geopolitics playing a secondary role.

Due to this logic, Trump believes that Taiwan is taking economic advantage of the U.S., a view that is likely to affect his views on other aspects of U.S.-Taiwan relations.